His number 9:
Authors will go on virtual book tours and attend virtual publishing conferences without leaving home.(Hate to be the one to break the news to him, but this has been happening for two years now, at least.)
Number 7:
We will begin to see e-book kiosks in bookstores and possibly in non-bookstores.Number 4:
Educators, psychologists and parents will report learning and retention problems for children reading on screens.Number 3:
The Big Six publishers will raise their current royalty rate over the standard 25% they currently offer.He lists them all in GalleyCat. What’s your prediction(s)?
My prediction is that people will continue to read, to devour the word, in all its manifestations.
ReplyDeleteMy daughter was given a kindle for Xmas and loved it. She devours books on holidays and this will be ideal. So my prediction is a drop in sales for those airport bookstores and a huge rise in downloaded e-books.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction? I ditto Jan.
ReplyDeleteWishing you and yours a Happy New Year, Helen.
How much lower could kid's retention levels sink? And you're right about #9.
ReplyDeletePenelope, that prediction has already come true, just in the lost airport book sales since my husband got his iPad!
ReplyDeleteGlynis, I'm with you. I ditto Jan, too.
He did seem a bit behind the times on that one, didn't he, Alex!
I'm with Jan too. I don't have children, but I would rather see youngsters reading on screens than playing games all the time.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year to you and your family.
Mason
Thoughts in Progress
I think the jury's still out on the impact of electronic readers on children's learning. For me, books were always a refuge - go away somewhere quiet and curl up with a book. I'm not sure there's the same tactile interface with an electronic reader, but then again, there are new methodologies of learning that are still evolving.
ReplyDeleteAs for the virtual book tours, wasn't it Margaret Attwood who first started using the electronic signing devices?
Happy 2011!
Here's an off the wall prediction. I believe there will be an increase in the number of visits to eye doctors. These will come as a result of dry eye syndrom related to staring at a screen and not blinking enough. Ease of downloading is a neat thing...but I do think our eyes will suffer.
ReplyDeleteI predict that retention levels will rise. The reason for my prediction is sheer contrariness.
ReplyDeleteHave a great 2011!
Marian Allen
The retention thing is bull. Schools already use all types of vocabulary applications and math challenges the students can use on iphones and netbooks. Kids are used to this technology and learn using it. How else could they remember how to reach all those upper levels on their video games?
ReplyDeleteI agree, Mason. Although...maybe a few games since my son is a Game Designer.
ReplyDeleteShe did, ViewPoint2010! Each morning when I come downstairs and see my husband sitting in the dark reading his iPad, I think he's interfacing quite well.
I hadn't thought of that, Liza.
Way to go, Marian!
Susan, kids certainly do more things than I could do, as a child or an adult. Growing up with technology has made a huge difference in their lives and minds. I see my own kids as examples.
Hi Helen .. interesting list .. ebook kiosks ..
ReplyDeletePerhaps we should start concentrating on short stories? Pass the time at bus stops, train stations, and airports - appropriate place for now?!
Kids - it will be interesting to see how the next generation to adult-hood - ten years or so .. will cope with being adults and living in a regulated world.
Cheers Hilary
The kiosks at bus stations sound good, but I wonder if they'd be prone to being broken into for the money? Unless, everything was done via PayPal or...ah heck, just download short stories to your eReader from your home computer. Short stories would be excellent for short bus rides, Hilary!
ReplyDeleteI don't see how retention would be any different on the screen vs. the page. As for ebook kiosks, isn't that a big expense for something that you can use the computer/ebook reader for? I don't see the practical application for those, but maybe I just don't have the imagination. :)
ReplyDeleteIf his prediction about the big publishers raising their rates comes to pass, then I predict the end of said publishers. A little like Borders charging $99.00 to e-pub your book when all the others are free.
ReplyDeleteNancy
N. R. Williams, fantasy author
mmmm, that's tough. I don't think there will be much change for most of the year. Maybe some new stuff coming out in SEpt or so for the next holiday season.
ReplyDeleteI wonder about the connection between retention and screen-reading. What do you think? True?
I got news for him - Kevin Smokeler started doing online tours for authors back in 2004-2005! They've been around for a while.
ReplyDeleteAnd 25%? Not a chance! Unless it's all eBooks by that time. Publishers lose too much money as it is, especially since the big boys get so many returns.
The theory is that ebooks are cheaper to produce therefore publishers could give a bigger percentage to authors. 'Course, ebooks are cheaper to buy so that 25% may not mean much.
ReplyDeleteJenn, I don't have an eReader, so I can't testify to much, but it seems that an eReader could be as effective as a print book for studying, if it has the capability of word search and book marking - and maybe writing in the margins.
Diane, at least with eBooks there aren't returns!
ReplyDeleteHmm, my prediction is that people will continue to fret over e-publishing taking over hardcopy publishing. Which is a bit of a negative one, I know.
ReplyDeleteOk, a positive one: there will continue to be a wealth of stunning reading material, and we will all indulge ourselves silly on it, and everything will be ok. There, that's my prediction!
I worry about the retention rate for kids learning too. The world is offered to them in smaller and faster chunks. I don't know if our brains are ready for that.
ReplyDeleteHope you have a terrific new year Helen!
Interesting predictions, although I think Number 7 is pretty accurate--there are kiosks for so many other things, so why not books?
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year!
Jennifer, I'd love to indulge myself silly on books!
ReplyDeleteJemi, you have a terrific nwe year too.
Golden Eagle, kiosks would allow you to buy books at the spa or hotel lobbies or in line for tickets, etc. Not bad!
Once eBooks become more reasonably priced, I'm all on board to download my share. I'm too cheap to pay $12 for a book I can get for $5 --cheaper used...or for free at the library.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteI love end of the year predictions. Mine is real easy - ebook sales will continue to be a growing segment of the book marketplace. Also, ebooks will ship with cover art. Right now if you load up an ebook you start out right at the title page, both on the Nook and the Kindle. It's quite disappointing. B&N and Apple will start including the cover art as page one to help differentiate their color advantage.
ReplyDelete~jon
I agree with Susan about the technology and retention issue. I was amazed when I went to a local elementary school to see the technology kids were using there. The teachers all said that retention was much better when the kids were actively a part of the learning process through the Smartboard and other devices they were using.
ReplyDeleteI think the future is exciting for e-books and utilizing the Internet for promoting and marketing. Bring it on....
Happy New Year, Helen and all
I didn't realize that, Jon. I know on my husband's iPad, he sees the cover art when the book is sitting on his shelf, but I'd never noticed if it showed when he took the book off the shelf to read.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year to you, too, Maryann - and to everyone!
ReplyDeleteI predict I will buy a Kindle online, and avoid the kiosk . .
ReplyDeleteBut, trends are fickle, and my tastes are as unpredictable as anyone else's.
Have a good weekend Helen. Happy New Year.
........dhole
that #4 interests me greatly. I've never read well from a screen unless all I am doing is editing for grammar/typos. That prediction makes me think it isn't because my brain is old and unwilling, but because we read differently...
ReplyDeleteDonna, I'm finding that my tastes in books change as I age. I'm reading a wider variety of genres now.
ReplyDeleteHart, I used to edit on paper, but now I edit on the screen - and prefer it that way. I slow down and read each word rather than zipping through the words as I would do if reading in print.
It's all changing so fast. Not long ago, I declared I couldn't proof read my manuscript on the screen and had to have a print out. Now, I can't imagine wasting the paper.
ReplyDeleteAll the classrooms at the school where I teach have Smart Boards, so the kids are definitely learning using the screens!!!
Monti
NotesAlongTheWay
Monti, not long ago I could only write with pen and paper. Now I can't imagine writing without my computer. Times do change and they seem to change quickly.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction is that, as was the case with Gutenberg's press, it'll take at least 500 years of history before the *full* impact of how e-books and e-readers have changed the world (not just the publishing world, but the whole world) can be assessed.
ReplyDeleteSelf-publishing will become a more viable and respected option for authors, with an equally impossible-to-predict chance of success for authors as is the case with traditional publishing.
Hope 2011 brings new joys and many good memories.
Judy (South Africa)
Finally starting to get back to the internet here...
ReplyDeleteHave a happy and safe New Year and may your batteries be recharged! :)
Judy, the buzz is that self-publishing won't become the norm because there's no one guarding the door the way publishers and agents did. I think it means the readers will become the guardians. For this reason, authors must make sure their first book is truly ready to go out to the public.
ReplyDeleteLaura, I do feel like my batteries are re-charging. I hope yours are as well!
I agree with Jan and Laura. Not so sure about Richard Curtis - so-so.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year!
That is quite a list! I look forward to the ebook kiosks! Already in my local Borders you can buy and download ebooks for your Kobo. What I would love to see is Kiosks that allow you to buy and download ebooks for whichever ereader you have. Or how about being able to "rent" a book for a lower cost. Say, $2.99 for a 3 week ebook, kind of like Blockbusters for ebooks?
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year! Thanks for stirring the imagination today with your post!
I'm with you on the renting, Suzanne. I got an iPod Nano for Christmas and wanted to get an audio book, but they're almost $24!
ReplyDelete